Rebels in Syria could cut off Russian military bases from Assad's forces.

Putin may lose his only foreign naval base. Rebels, who launched a surprise offensive in Syria a week ago, have approached the last major city on the way to the capital, Damascus. If they capture it, the region housing Russian naval and air force bases along the Mediterranean coast will be behind them.

Source. This is reported by Bloomberg.

The opposition forces, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, have reached the city of Homs. Over the weekend, they seized Aleppo in the north of the country, then moved south and captured Hama on Thursday. Homs is situated halfway between Aleppo and Damascus.

However, capturing Homs would be sufficient for the rebels to cut off the western coastal region of the country from the government-controlled territories.

This is where the Russian naval base in Tartus and the air base in Khmeimim are located.

The fall of Homs seems to be just a matter of time, believes Serhat Erkmen, director of the Pros&Cons Security and Risk Analysis Center in Ankara:

“Homs holds much more significance than Hama, and its capture could seriously threaten Assad's regime. If the Syrian regime is determined to defend it, the fighting could last about a week. But if the morale among government troops is low, the rebels could take it in two days.”

Russia has no plan to save Assad, and it's unlikely to emerge. Meanwhile, Assad's army continues to abandon its positions without resistance, a person close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg.

Satellite images have shown that Russian military ships left the base in Tartus in the early days of December.

Iran will consider a request from the Syrian government if it asks for troops, said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday. On Friday, he added, without going into details, that Tehran is ready to support Assad “to the necessary extent.”

“Tehran will likely have to send military equipment, missiles, and drones to Syria,” a senior official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. “Tehran has taken all necessary steps to increase the number of its military advisors in Syria and deploy forces.”

However, Iran's military capabilities and those of the militants it supports are currently severely limited. Moreover, HTS is not the only threat. On Friday, U.S.-backed Kurdish forces captured the eastern city of Al-Bukamal on the border with Iraq.

Most residents in the rural areas around Homs quietly support the opposition, which will help clear the way for them into the city, says Charles Lister, director of Syria and Counterterrorism and Extremism Programs at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

“Assad's future has never looked as unstable as it does now, and Russia seems unable, and perhaps even unwilling, to save him.”

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani gave his first interview since the start of the rebels' offensive. He told CNN that he aims to “overthrow Assad” and “build Syria,” bringing Syrian refugees back home from Lebanon and Europe.

HTS, designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Russia, broke away from Al-Qaeda in 2016 and claims it poses no threat to the West. It has spent years softening its image and presents itself as an alternative force to the 54-year authoritarian rule of the Assad family, notes Reuters.

Background. Recall that it was reported recently that Syrian opposition rebels entered the city of Hama and pushed out Assad's government forces, who allegedly left Hama to “prevent fighting in the city and protect the civilian population.”