The former head of the regulator stated that the NBU's annual currency interventions should range between $3 billion and $5 billion.

The relative currency stability in Ukraine is temporary, as it is supported by external assistance.

This was stated in an authorial column for Mind by the former head of the NBU, Kyrylo Shevchenko.

He is convinced that Ukraine will inevitably have to tackle serious economic challenges on its own. However, predicting when this will happen is currently difficult.

In particular, he believes it will be necessary to ensure a positive balance of the external trade balance at a level of no less than $10–15 billion per year. He thinks it is essential to address the issue of servicing external debt at approximately $5–10 billion annually, support the hryvnia exchange rate through NBU currency interventions ($3–5 billion per year), and replenish NBU reserves, which means an additional $3–4 billion each year.

“If we pragmatically assess all risks right now, immediately start reviewing the economic strategy, and take decisive actions to stabilize the currency market, we can create a strong foundation for achieving independent support for economic stability,” Shevchenko noted.

According to him, Ukraine must implement powerful incentives to boost exports and saturate the domestic market with Ukrainian goods. Otherwise, a currency deficit and additional devaluation pressure may occur.

Background. Earlier, Mind reported that today financial stability in the economy is primarily maintained due to significant external support and a decline in private consumer demand.